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Thursday, February 4, 2010

The Top 10 Baseball Teams of the '00s

Wow, this was a long project. Nearing the end of the year 2009 and thus the decade, sports networks and websites started posting their "best of the decade" lists. Off the top of my head, I can remember NFL Network showing the top 10 plays of the decade, baseball writer Rob Neyer's (whose co-authored book plays a big part in this post) list of the decade's top 50 MLB players, and MLB.com analyzing which MLB team had the best decade. So, now I guess it's my turn.

In this post I hope to show you, through examining individual statistics, team statistics, and team accomplishments, which MLB teams had the best season in the decade. Because I am only looking at single seasons, franchises could potentially hold multiple spots on this list.

What, exactly, are my standards for ranking teams? My main standards are the following: Pythagorean Record, standard deviation (SD) score, postseason accomplishments, and regular season record. Pythagorean Record and SD score appear prominently in Rob Neyer and Eddie Epstein's Baseball Dynasties: The Greatest Teams of All Time, and are what I feel are excellent measures of a team's dominance during the season. Pythagorean Record projects a team's typical winning percentage based on their runs scored and runs allowed. SD score compares a team's runs scored and runs allowed with the rest of the league; the number of standard deviations above league average in both runs scored and runs allowed are added together to form the SD score. Thankfully, Baseball-Reference.com has already calculated Pythagorean Record, so I had to do only a little calculation on my own. However, no site I found has published SD scores, so I had to make all the calculations myself, based on Eddie Epstein's description of the formula in Baseball Dynasties.

The "tiebreaker" portion of my rankings that places teams I think are extremely close in the previously mentioned standards is to assess the "star power" on the teams; did they have any players having absolutely standout seasons? Certainly, this standard is subjective and could start debates, but it is a very minor part of the rankings compared to other factors. So, with these standards in mind, let's get to my rankings!

A brief note: As you probably remember from this past decade of baseball, the most dominant regular season teams were certainly not always the ones raising the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of the World Series. This definitely showed in the statistics. I was hard-pressed to give a good deal more credit to teams who won the World Series when, in reality, there were many teams who flamed out in the playoffs that were incredibly dominant during the regular season.

10. 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks 92-70, Won WS, #25 Pyth, #21 SD Score
I'll admit this right off the bat (haha, punny): I really had to work to get World Series champs on this list. The most dominant teams according to the statistical measures usually fell apart come playoff time, so I increasingly gave more weight to winning it all. With all those World Series the Yankees had won in the previous years, you know you were rooting for the D-Backs to win this series. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling were one of the most dominant 1-2 starting combos of the decade, while Luis Gonzalez belted an amazing 57 HRs to lead an extremely experienced offense (none of their primary regulars were under the age of 30). On a personal note, 2 former Pirates, Jay Bell and Tony Womack, got their long-awaited rings, so it gave me an extra reason to hope they would succeed.

9. 2008 Philadelphia Phillies 92-70, Won WS, #32 Pyth, #18 SD Score
I had the pleasure of being at Citizens Bank Park to watch them clinch their division in thrilling fashion; I've never heard a baseball crowd erupt the way the Phils' fans did on Jayson Werth's HR and Jimmy Rollins' game-ending double play flip to 2nd. Ryan Howard's crazy power led him to finish 2nd in MVP voting, and Utley, Rollins, Victorino, Burrell, and Werth helped make this a powerful lineup. World Series MVP Cole Hamels, 45 year old Jamie Moyer, and Brad Lidge (perfect on saves throughout the whole year) led the rotation.

8. 2001 Oakland Athletics 102-60, Lost in ALDS, #2 Pyth, #4 SD Score
All the measurables are great, but this team didn't even win its division, let alone a playoff series. This team and the next year's A's were the pinnacle of the Billy Beane Moneyball success story. Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, and Eric Chavez led an extremely powerful offense that also included stars like Johnny Damon and Jermaine Dye. The top 4 starters of Hudson, Mulder, Zito, and Lidle were a major force on the mound as well.

7. 2002 San Francisco Giants 95-66, Lost in WS, #10 Pyth, #8 SD Score
Fell short in a truly fantastic World Series. Best friends Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent mashed the ball all season to spearhead this offense; 37 year old Benito Santiago even had a nice year behind the plate. The starting pitching of Livan Hernandez, Rueter, Schmidt, and Russ Ortiz was adequate, and the Robb Nen-led bullpen shut down teams game in and game out.

6. 2009 New York Yankees 103-59, Won WS, #21 Pyth, #19 SD Score
What a way to bring in the new Yankee Stadium. Everyone remembers the wind tunnel and all the home runs hit there, but their Pythagorean Record shows they finished 8 wins more than expected. 7 of their 9 regulars hit more than 20 HRs, and all 9 had double digit HRs. A-Rod served his time for the steroid stuff and conquered his demons come playoff time. CC Sabathia showed he was worth the big bucks given to him, and the Yankees had a Rivera-led bullpen replete with young arms.

5. 2004 St. Louis Cardinals 105-57, Lost in WS, #5 Pyth, #10 SD Score
Like Finland in 1980 Olympic hockey, an extremely good Cardinals team was a footnote to a miracle. Pujols, Scott Rolen, and Jim Edmonds crushed the ball relentlessly, each smacking over 30 HRs and 100 RBI. Larry Walker was a late-season addition to this roster. Chris Carpenter was the best of a non-spectacular starting rotation, but the Isringhausen-led bullpen was tremendous.

4. 2004 Boston Red Sox 98-64, Won WS, #15 Pyth, #6 SD Score
Reversed the curse. You know the story; they came back from 3-0 to take down the Yankees. Big Papi and Manny were at the top of their games, and they were part of a great veteran-laden lineup. Curt Schilling was great, even during the bloody sock incident. Pedro Martinez was very solid, and Keith Foulke was the team's closer.

3. 2002 Anaheim Angels 99-63, Won WS, #3 Pyth, #15 SD Score
The Angels' first and, so far, only championship was another great story of the decade. The entire nation got to know the Rally Monkey. The offense was pretty good, led by Garret Anderson and Troy Glaus, and was filled with veterans and hard workers like Spiezio, Eckstein, Adam Kennedy, and Salmon. Closer Troy Percival was still going strong, and a starting rotation that would include rookie John Lackey had 5 options that were really not bad at all (yes, even Aaron Sele was serviceable).

2. 2001 Seattle Mariners 116-46, Lost in ALCS, #1 Pyth, #1 SD Score
Unquestionably the best regular season team of the decade, but because they faltered against the Yankees, I can't give them the top team of the decade award. Except for the 1906 Cubs, no other team has ever won 116 games in a season. Ichiro-mania had taken Major League Baseball by storm. Bret Boone had a career year at the bat, and veterans like John Olerud and Edgar Martinez were part of an offense that had virtually no holes (save for left field, where former Pirate superstar Al Martin played a solid chunk of the season). A youthful (38) Jamie Moyer won 20 games, and Freddy Garcia and rookie Joel Pineiro had fantastic years on the bump.

1. 2007 Boston Red Sox 96-66, Won WS, #4 Pyth, #5 SD Score
No miracles from these guys, just domination. They abruptly ended Colorado's magical run to the World Series in 4 games. The offense wasn't quite as dominant as '04; David Ortiz was his usual tremendous self, but Ramirez had something of an off-year during the regular season. Lowell, Youkilis, and 2007 ROY Dustin Pedroia also provided some excellent hitting. The starting rotation was led by Cy Young runner-up Josh Beckett and also featured Schilling, Tim Wakefield, and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Closer Jonathan Papelbon was dominant. In the end, they did everything needed to win my world-famous title: they dominated on offense and on defense more than almost all teams in the past decade, and they won the big games when they mattered the most.

Near Misses: '08 Cubs, '09 Dodgers, '05 Cardinals

My extreme thanks to Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com for providing the stats necessary to make this happen.

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