2010 Olympic Hockey: My Flawless Predictions

We are nearing close to the 2010 Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver. For the one moment every 4 years, we get reintroduced to so many sports and competitions that make the Winter Olympics; everyone loves their skiing, curling, and figure skating drama.

But if you're like me, the sport I plan on watching the closest is hockey. Since hockey, as well as the NHL, is such an international sport, many fans are torn between cheering on their home country and hoping for the best for the foreign players on their team of choice. With so many countries sending out top-notch talent to the Olympics, how on Earth can anyone predict which three national teams will be on the medal podium, and in which order? Luckily for you, I set out on a foolproof way of figuring this out.

So what is the most scientific, non-biased way of predicting the outcome for the Olympic hockey tournament? Not highly researched and analyzed simulations...but video games. It probably would have been great to have the most recent game with which to play this out, but EA Sports discontinued their NHL franchise for PC, and NHL 2k10 did not come out for PC either. Thus, all of the games were played out on NHL 09 for PC. Thankfully, ESPN.com had pretty much all NHL 10 player ratings on their website for NHL 10, so I adjusted ratings accordingly for the players in the Olympics. Because I started my virtual Olympic hockey tournament before any countries announced roster changes, I used each country's initially announced 23-man roster, which all came out around New Year's Day. I used 5 minute periods because they best reflect the amount of shots that will probably be taken in games, and overtimes were decided by a five-minute overtime followed by a shootout as they will in the Olympics. The rules were adjusted to the international rules that will be in effect in Vancouver (e.g., no-touch icing). Because no neutral ice feature exists on NHL 09, the home team for each match was the first team listed in its matchup on the Wikipedia link below; the better teams (in IIHF ranking) in the group got 2 home games in the preliminary round, the worse ones got 1, and the better seed got home ice in the knockout round. Finally, for reality's sake, each game was played out in its announced order. Without further ado, for your entertainment, here's how it played out on my computer...

(Note: In the Preliminary Round, regulation wins count for 3 points, overtime wins count for 2 points, overtime losses count for 1 point, and no points for regulation losses)
PRELIMINARY ROUND
GROUP A

Team	W	OTW	OTL	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
Canada	2	0	1	0	17	11	6	7
United States	2	0	0	1	10	7	3	6
Switzerland	1	1	0	1	12	12	0	5
Norway	0	0	0	3	7	16	-9	0

GROUP B

Team	W	OTW	OTL	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
Russia	2	1	0	0	8	4	4	8
Czech Republic	2	0	1	0	8	4	4	7
Latvia	1	0	0	2	6	6	0	3
Slovakia	0	0	0	3	0	8	-8	0

GROUP C

Team	W	OTW	OTL	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
Sweden	3	0	0	0	12	6	6	9
Finland	1	1	0	1	8	8	0	5
Germany	0	1	0	2	6	8	-2	2
Belarus	0	0	2	1	5	9	-4	2

Teams are ranked 1 through 12 based on group rank, points, and goal differential; teams ranked 1 through 4 (#1 Sweden, #2 Russia, #3 Canada, #4 Czech Republic) had a bye into the Quarterfinals, while 5 through 12 play a secondary round to reach the Quarterfinals...
SECONDARY ROUND
#5 United States vs. #12 Norway (winner plays Czech Republic): United States 3, Norway 0
#6 Finland vs. #11 Slovakia (winner plays Canada): Finland 6, Slovakia 3
#7 Switzerland vs. #10 Belarus (winner plays Russia): Switzerland 4, Belarus 1
#8 Latvia vs. #9 Germany (winner plays Sweden): Latvia 4, Germany 1

The winners and terms in parentheses showed the Quarterfinal matches. Because of the time rules, most likely for TV viewers' convenience, the United States played the first game, while Canada played the second...
QUARTERFINALS
#4 Czech Republic vs. #5 United States (winner plays Sweden-Latvia winner): Czech Republic 3, United States 1 (darn it)
#3 Canada vs. #6 Finland (winner plays Russia-Switzerland winner): Finland 3, Canada 2 (SHOCKER!!)
#1 Sweden vs. #8 Latvia: Sweden 1, Latvia 0
#2 Russia vs. #7 Switzerland: Russia 4, Switzerland 1

I found it a bummer that both North American teams got knocked out before the semis, but the show must go on. The winner of these games play for the gold medal, while the losers play for the bronze...
SEMIFINALS
#1 Sweden vs. #4 Czech Republic: Czech Republic 6, Sweden 3
#2 Russia vs. #6 Finland: Russia 7, Finland 4

Goals galore. Looks like Sweden isn't repeating this Olympics. So now we've reached the big moment: which three countries are going home with the players wearing medals around their necks?...
BRONZE MEDAL GAME
#1 Sweden vs. #6 Finland: Sweden 3, Finland 1
GOLD MEDAL GAME
#2 Russia vs. #4 Czech Republic: Russia 6, Czech Republic 1

Unfortunately, this was a very non-climactic ending, as you can see from the score. Russia as gold medalist, should they win it in real life, should come as a surprise to nobody as the team is filled with major NHL stars, along with some KHL stars (some of which are former NHL stars).
Your final standings, 12 to gold: (teams 9 to 12 are losers in the secondary round ranked based on preliminary round rankings, 5 to 8 lost in the quarterfinals and are also ranked based on preliminary round rankings)
12. Norway
11. Slovakia
10. Belarus
9. Germany
8. Latvia
7. Switzerland
6. United States
5. Canada
4. Finland
BRONZE: Sweden (Top Scorer: Henrik Zetterberg)
SILVER: Czech Republic (Top Scorer: David Krejci, Martin Havlat, and Milan Michalek tied)
GOLD: Russia (Top Scorer: Sergei Fedorov, over all their other stars)

Obviously, Teams U.S.A. and Canada were big disappointments by finishing short of the medal rounds. Also, Slovakia, pointed out by many to be a dark horse candidate for a medal, failed to even score a goal until the knockout round.

And there you go. Through my scientific process, I've showed you which country is bringing home the gold in men's hockey. Now you don't have to watch the games in suspense, although you might want to watch just to make sure I got it right. I hope you were entertained, and I hope you enjoy the entire 2010 Winter Olympics.