"Go to a Happy Place"

The weather forecast starting this evening calls for yet more snow for my area. This follows the most recent string of days featuring snow melting and even some sunshine. Man, we can not catch a break with this intense winter weather. As my way of coping with yet more oncoming snow, I figured I'd share something I really hope to get accomplished should the snow ever melt around here.

Starting at the beginning of last semester, but greatly picking up my pace during this semester, I have been hitting the weight room regularly. I feel like it's paid off so far; I have bulked up to a fairly solid 175 lbs., while at the same time making noticeable improvements in my flexibility. I'm not ready to proclaim myself, baseball spring training style, in the "best shape of my life," but I feel great about my progress.

Why dedicate myself so much to the weight room now? The self-confidence and health benefits are great. However, I'm also an extremely competitive person, and I always like to have some way of channeling my competitive nature into something I enjoy. Of course, the things I enjoy most where I can be competitive are sports (I think you've been missing the point of this blog for quite a while if you've thought otherwise). That being said, I hope to vastly improve my golf game by the end of the summer.

I'm certainly not foreign to the game of golf. I played in the summer rarely while in grade school and in high school, and played fairly often over the past few summers since I entered college. Still, I do not feel like I have dedicated myself enough to begin to make major improvements in my game. I want to get to the driving range as often as I can (much more so than last year), practice my short game just as much, and continue to improve my fitness level. Also, my current clubs (especially my driver) have endured their share of shots over the past few years; I may break my personal bank to go to a club seller and get new clubs fitted for my body type and swing. Lessons certainly aren't out of the question; if the greats of golf have swing coaches, I'm pretty sure I could not possibly be above getting swing tips. Also, I may try to avoid the free course around me more often than usual; I'm not sure if its ridiculous tee boxes and inconsistent fairways are very helpful to improving my game.

Despite the obvious costs involved with the game, it seems to me that playing and making improvements in golf is easier than a great deal of other sports. Every single facet of the game can be worked on both alone and in the presence of friends and others. A huge yard is needed for working on drives (if you plan on using regular balls for practice), but there are areas that one can practice even from the comfort of home. Hopefully I don't sound too antisocial saying all this; I love all the golf outings with friends that take place during the summer.

I'm not sure whether talking so much about my big golf plans has excited me more for the spring and the summer, or just made me more impatient in enduring this snowy winter weather. If you actually read this, I hope you stick around, as I have another fun idea coming soon...

2010 Olympic Hockey: My Flawless Predictions

We are nearing close to the 2010 Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver. For the one moment every 4 years, we get reintroduced to so many sports and competitions that make the Winter Olympics; everyone loves their skiing, curling, and figure skating drama.

But if you're like me, the sport I plan on watching the closest is hockey. Since hockey, as well as the NHL, is such an international sport, many fans are torn between cheering on their home country and hoping for the best for the foreign players on their team of choice. With so many countries sending out top-notch talent to the Olympics, how on Earth can anyone predict which three national teams will be on the medal podium, and in which order? Luckily for you, I set out on a foolproof way of figuring this out.

So what is the most scientific, non-biased way of predicting the outcome for the Olympic hockey tournament? Not highly researched and analyzed simulations...but video games. It probably would have been great to have the most recent game with which to play this out, but EA Sports discontinued their NHL franchise for PC, and NHL 2k10 did not come out for PC either. Thus, all of the games were played out on NHL 09 for PC. Thankfully, ESPN.com had pretty much all NHL 10 player ratings on their website for NHL 10, so I adjusted ratings accordingly for the players in the Olympics. Because I started my virtual Olympic hockey tournament before any countries announced roster changes, I used each country's initially announced 23-man roster, which all came out around New Year's Day. I used 5 minute periods because they best reflect the amount of shots that will probably be taken in games, and overtimes were decided by a five-minute overtime followed by a shootout as they will in the Olympics. The rules were adjusted to the international rules that will be in effect in Vancouver (e.g., no-touch icing). Because no neutral ice feature exists on NHL 09, the home team for each match was the first team listed in its matchup on the Wikipedia link below; the better teams (in IIHF ranking) in the group got 2 home games in the preliminary round, the worse ones got 1, and the better seed got home ice in the knockout round. Finally, for reality's sake, each game was played out in its announced order. Without further ado, for your entertainment, here's how it played out on my computer...

(Note: In the Preliminary Round, regulation wins count for 3 points, overtime wins count for 2 points, overtime losses count for 1 point, and no points for regulation losses)
PRELIMINARY ROUND
GROUP A

Team	W	OTW	OTL	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
Canada	2	0	1	0	17	11	6	7
United States	2	0	0	1	10	7	3	6
Switzerland	1	1	0	1	12	12	0	5
Norway	0	0	0	3	7	16	-9	0

GROUP B

Team	W	OTW	OTL	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
Russia	2	1	0	0	8	4	4	8
Czech Republic	2	0	1	0	8	4	4	7
Latvia	1	0	0	2	6	6	0	3
Slovakia	0	0	0	3	0	8	-8	0

GROUP C

Team	W	OTW	OTL	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
Sweden	3	0	0	0	12	6	6	9
Finland	1	1	0	1	8	8	0	5
Germany	0	1	0	2	6	8	-2	2
Belarus	0	0	2	1	5	9	-4	2

Teams are ranked 1 through 12 based on group rank, points, and goal differential; teams ranked 1 through 4 (#1 Sweden, #2 Russia, #3 Canada, #4 Czech Republic) had a bye into the Quarterfinals, while 5 through 12 play a secondary round to reach the Quarterfinals...
SECONDARY ROUND
#5 United States vs. #12 Norway (winner plays Czech Republic): United States 3, Norway 0
#6 Finland vs. #11 Slovakia (winner plays Canada): Finland 6, Slovakia 3
#7 Switzerland vs. #10 Belarus (winner plays Russia): Switzerland 4, Belarus 1
#8 Latvia vs. #9 Germany (winner plays Sweden): Latvia 4, Germany 1

The winners and terms in parentheses showed the Quarterfinal matches. Because of the time rules, most likely for TV viewers' convenience, the United States played the first game, while Canada played the second...
QUARTERFINALS
#4 Czech Republic vs. #5 United States (winner plays Sweden-Latvia winner): Czech Republic 3, United States 1 (darn it)
#3 Canada vs. #6 Finland (winner plays Russia-Switzerland winner): Finland 3, Canada 2 (SHOCKER!!)
#1 Sweden vs. #8 Latvia: Sweden 1, Latvia 0
#2 Russia vs. #7 Switzerland: Russia 4, Switzerland 1

I found it a bummer that both North American teams got knocked out before the semis, but the show must go on. The winner of these games play for the gold medal, while the losers play for the bronze...
SEMIFINALS
#1 Sweden vs. #4 Czech Republic: Czech Republic 6, Sweden 3
#2 Russia vs. #6 Finland: Russia 7, Finland 4

Goals galore. Looks like Sweden isn't repeating this Olympics. So now we've reached the big moment: which three countries are going home with the players wearing medals around their necks?...
BRONZE MEDAL GAME
#1 Sweden vs. #6 Finland: Sweden 3, Finland 1
GOLD MEDAL GAME
#2 Russia vs. #4 Czech Republic: Russia 6, Czech Republic 1

Unfortunately, this was a very non-climactic ending, as you can see from the score. Russia as gold medalist, should they win it in real life, should come as a surprise to nobody as the team is filled with major NHL stars, along with some KHL stars (some of which are former NHL stars).
Your final standings, 12 to gold: (teams 9 to 12 are losers in the secondary round ranked based on preliminary round rankings, 5 to 8 lost in the quarterfinals and are also ranked based on preliminary round rankings)
12. Norway
11. Slovakia
10. Belarus
9. Germany
8. Latvia
7. Switzerland
6. United States
5. Canada
4. Finland
BRONZE: Sweden (Top Scorer: Henrik Zetterberg)
SILVER: Czech Republic (Top Scorer: David Krejci, Martin Havlat, and Milan Michalek tied)
GOLD: Russia (Top Scorer: Sergei Fedorov, over all their other stars)

Obviously, Teams U.S.A. and Canada were big disappointments by finishing short of the medal rounds. Also, Slovakia, pointed out by many to be a dark horse candidate for a medal, failed to even score a goal until the knockout round.

And there you go. Through my scientific process, I've showed you which country is bringing home the gold in men's hockey. Now you don't have to watch the games in suspense, although you might want to watch just to make sure I got it right. I hope you were entertained, and I hope you enjoy the entire 2010 Winter Olympics.

The Top 10 Baseball Teams of the '00s

Wow, this was a long project. Nearing the end of the year 2009 and thus the decade, sports networks and websites started posting their "best of the decade" lists. Off the top of my head, I can remember NFL Network showing the top 10 plays of the decade, baseball writer Rob Neyer's (whose co-authored book plays a big part in this post) list of the decade's top 50 MLB players, and MLB.com analyzing which MLB team had the best decade. So, now I guess it's my turn.

In this post I hope to show you, through examining individual statistics, team statistics, and team accomplishments, which MLB teams had the best season in the decade. Because I am only looking at single seasons, franchises could potentially hold multiple spots on this list.

What, exactly, are my standards for ranking teams? My main standards are the following: Pythagorean Record, standard deviation (SD) score, postseason accomplishments, and regular season record. Pythagorean Record and SD score appear prominently in Rob Neyer and Eddie Epstein's Baseball Dynasties: The Greatest Teams of All Time, and are what I feel are excellent measures of a team's dominance during the season. Pythagorean Record projects a team's typical winning percentage based on their runs scored and runs allowed. SD score compares a team's runs scored and runs allowed with the rest of the league; the number of standard deviations above league average in both runs scored and runs allowed are added together to form the SD score. Thankfully, Baseball-Reference.com has already calculated Pythagorean Record, so I had to do only a little calculation on my own. However, no site I found has published SD scores, so I had to make all the calculations myself, based on Eddie Epstein's description of the formula in Baseball Dynasties.

The "tiebreaker" portion of my rankings that places teams I think are extremely close in the previously mentioned standards is to assess the "star power" on the teams; did they have any players having absolutely standout seasons? Certainly, this standard is subjective and could start debates, but it is a very minor part of the rankings compared to other factors. So, with these standards in mind, let's get to my rankings!

A brief note: As you probably remember from this past decade of baseball, the most dominant regular season teams were certainly not always the ones raising the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of the World Series. This definitely showed in the statistics. I was hard-pressed to give a good deal more credit to teams who won the World Series when, in reality, there were many teams who flamed out in the playoffs that were incredibly dominant during the regular season.

10. 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks 92-70, Won WS, #25 Pyth, #21 SD Score
I'll admit this right off the bat (haha, punny): I really had to work to get World Series champs on this list. The most dominant teams according to the statistical measures usually fell apart come playoff time, so I increasingly gave more weight to winning it all. With all those World Series the Yankees had won in the previous years, you know you were rooting for the D-Backs to win this series. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling were one of the most dominant 1-2 starting combos of the decade, while Luis Gonzalez belted an amazing 57 HRs to lead an extremely experienced offense (none of their primary regulars were under the age of 30). On a personal note, 2 former Pirates, Jay Bell and Tony Womack, got their long-awaited rings, so it gave me an extra reason to hope they would succeed.

9. 2008 Philadelphia Phillies 92-70, Won WS, #32 Pyth, #18 SD Score
I had the pleasure of being at Citizens Bank Park to watch them clinch their division in thrilling fashion; I've never heard a baseball crowd erupt the way the Phils' fans did on Jayson Werth's HR and Jimmy Rollins' game-ending double play flip to 2nd. Ryan Howard's crazy power led him to finish 2nd in MVP voting, and Utley, Rollins, Victorino, Burrell, and Werth helped make this a powerful lineup. World Series MVP Cole Hamels, 45 year old Jamie Moyer, and Brad Lidge (perfect on saves throughout the whole year) led the rotation.

8. 2001 Oakland Athletics 102-60, Lost in ALDS, #2 Pyth, #4 SD Score
All the measurables are great, but this team didn't even win its division, let alone a playoff series. This team and the next year's A's were the pinnacle of the Billy Beane Moneyball success story. Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, and Eric Chavez led an extremely powerful offense that also included stars like Johnny Damon and Jermaine Dye. The top 4 starters of Hudson, Mulder, Zito, and Lidle were a major force on the mound as well.

7. 2002 San Francisco Giants 95-66, Lost in WS, #10 Pyth, #8 SD Score
Fell short in a truly fantastic World Series. Best friends Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent mashed the ball all season to spearhead this offense; 37 year old Benito Santiago even had a nice year behind the plate. The starting pitching of Livan Hernandez, Rueter, Schmidt, and Russ Ortiz was adequate, and the Robb Nen-led bullpen shut down teams game in and game out.

6. 2009 New York Yankees 103-59, Won WS, #21 Pyth, #19 SD Score
What a way to bring in the new Yankee Stadium. Everyone remembers the wind tunnel and all the home runs hit there, but their Pythagorean Record shows they finished 8 wins more than expected. 7 of their 9 regulars hit more than 20 HRs, and all 9 had double digit HRs. A-Rod served his time for the steroid stuff and conquered his demons come playoff time. CC Sabathia showed he was worth the big bucks given to him, and the Yankees had a Rivera-led bullpen replete with young arms.

5. 2004 St. Louis Cardinals 105-57, Lost in WS, #5 Pyth, #10 SD Score
Like Finland in 1980 Olympic hockey, an extremely good Cardinals team was a footnote to a miracle. Pujols, Scott Rolen, and Jim Edmonds crushed the ball relentlessly, each smacking over 30 HRs and 100 RBI. Larry Walker was a late-season addition to this roster. Chris Carpenter was the best of a non-spectacular starting rotation, but the Isringhausen-led bullpen was tremendous.

4. 2004 Boston Red Sox 98-64, Won WS, #15 Pyth, #6 SD Score
Reversed the curse. You know the story; they came back from 3-0 to take down the Yankees. Big Papi and Manny were at the top of their games, and they were part of a great veteran-laden lineup. Curt Schilling was great, even during the bloody sock incident. Pedro Martinez was very solid, and Keith Foulke was the team's closer.

3. 2002 Anaheim Angels 99-63, Won WS, #3 Pyth, #15 SD Score
The Angels' first and, so far, only championship was another great story of the decade. The entire nation got to know the Rally Monkey. The offense was pretty good, led by Garret Anderson and Troy Glaus, and was filled with veterans and hard workers like Spiezio, Eckstein, Adam Kennedy, and Salmon. Closer Troy Percival was still going strong, and a starting rotation that would include rookie John Lackey had 5 options that were really not bad at all (yes, even Aaron Sele was serviceable).

2. 2001 Seattle Mariners 116-46, Lost in ALCS, #1 Pyth, #1 SD Score
Unquestionably the best regular season team of the decade, but because they faltered against the Yankees, I can't give them the top team of the decade award. Except for the 1906 Cubs, no other team has ever won 116 games in a season. Ichiro-mania had taken Major League Baseball by storm. Bret Boone had a career year at the bat, and veterans like John Olerud and Edgar Martinez were part of an offense that had virtually no holes (save for left field, where former Pirate superstar Al Martin played a solid chunk of the season). A youthful (38) Jamie Moyer won 20 games, and Freddy Garcia and rookie Joel Pineiro had fantastic years on the bump.

1. 2007 Boston Red Sox 96-66, Won WS, #4 Pyth, #5 SD Score
No miracles from these guys, just domination. They abruptly ended Colorado's magical run to the World Series in 4 games. The offense wasn't quite as dominant as '04; David Ortiz was his usual tremendous self, but Ramirez had something of an off-year during the regular season. Lowell, Youkilis, and 2007 ROY Dustin Pedroia also provided some excellent hitting. The starting rotation was led by Cy Young runner-up Josh Beckett and also featured Schilling, Tim Wakefield, and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Closer Jonathan Papelbon was dominant. In the end, they did everything needed to win my world-famous title: they dominated on offense and on defense more than almost all teams in the past decade, and they won the big games when they mattered the most.

Near Misses: '08 Cubs, '09 Dodgers, '05 Cardinals

My extreme thanks to Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com for providing the stats necessary to make this happen.